Smoke INW
Updated Medium forecast confidence

Today’s smoke outlook

20–35 AQI

Good

Typical regional AQI · Today

The chance of smoke is moderate near the ground and low aloft; the most likely AQI range is 5-35. Satellite imagery shows smoke elsewhere in the wider area.

Tomorrow

20–35 AQITypical regional AQI

Smokier: North ID / NW MT 25–55

Later

25–30 AQITypical regional AQI

Smokier: Silver Valley 25–45

Peak risk
Saturday Evening / Overnight
Smoke near ground
Moderate chance
Smoke movement
Unavailable
Forecast period
Next 48 hours

Visibility & smoke aloft

Ground<0.1 μg/m³1,600 ft0.1 μg/m³3,300 ft<0.1 μg/m³6,600 ft<0.1 μg/m³9,800 ft<0.1 μg/m³
Width and shading increase with modeled smoke; exact values are listed. The shape connects only neighboring levels with data. The pale dashed profile shows where the regional model places airborne haze. It may include particles other than wildfire smoke.
9,800 ft
<0.1 µg/m³ smoke
6,600 ft
<0.1 µg/m³ smoke
3,300 ft
<0.1 µg/m³ smoke
1,600 ft
0.1 µg/m³ smoke
Ground (~30 ft)
<0.1 µg/m³ smoke
Ground visibility
29 mi visibility
Haze light loss
2%/mi · ground

HRRR model guidance. Visibility includes fog and weather. Smoke values aloft are model estimates, not AQI or sensor readings. CAMS adds a broad regional haze view, not local AQI.

Location AQI forecast

AQI FORECAST — SPOKANE, WA

Past 48 hours (observed) • Next 48 hours (forecast) • Combined official monitors

Good0-50Moderate51-100Unhealthy forSensitive Groups101-150Unhealthy151-200Very Unhealthy201-300Hazardous301+Thursday, 1:00 PM — Observed AQI: 12 (Good)Thursday, 2:00 PM — Observed AQI: 11 (Good)Thursday, 3:00 PM — Observed AQI: 10 (Good)Thursday, 4:00 PM — Observed AQI: 8 (Good)Thursday, 5:00 PM — Observed AQI: 8 (Good)Thursday, 6:00 PM — Observed AQI: 12 (Good)Thursday, 7:00 PM — Observed AQI: 17 (Good)Thursday, 8:00 PM — Observed AQI: 21 (Good)Thursday, 9:00 PM — Observed AQI: 23 (Good)Thursday, 10:00 PM — Observed AQI: 24 (Good)Thursday, 11:00 PM — Observed AQI: 24 (Good)Friday, 12:00 AM — Observed AQI: 24 (Good)Friday, 1:00 AM — Observed AQI: 23 (Good)Friday, 2:00 AM — Observed AQI: 21 (Good)Friday, 3:00 AM — Observed AQI: 22 (Good)Friday, 4:00 AM — Observed AQI: 22 (Good)Friday, 5:00 AM — Observed AQI: 22 (Good)Friday, 6:00 AM — Observed AQI: 22 (Good)Friday, 7:00 AM — Observed AQI: 24 (Good)Friday, 8:00 AM — Observed AQI: 23 (Good)Friday, 9:00 AM — Observed AQI: 23 (Good)Friday, 10:00 AM — Observed AQI: 23 (Good)Friday, 11:00 AM — Observed AQI: 22 (Good)Friday, 12:00 PM — Observed AQI: 19 (Good)Friday, 1:00 PM — Observed AQI: 16 (Good)Friday, 2:00 PM — Observed AQI: 13 (Good)Friday, 3:00 PM — Observed AQI: 11 (Good)Friday, 4:00 PM — Observed AQI: 8 (Good)Friday, 5:00 PM — Observed AQI: 7 (Good)Friday, 6:00 PM — Observed AQI: 8 (Good)Friday, 7:00 PM — Observed AQI: 11 (Good)Friday, 8:00 PM — Observed AQI: 15 (Good)Friday, 9:00 PM — Observed AQI: 17 (Good)Friday, 10:00 PM — Observed AQI: 22 (Good)Friday, 11:00 PM — Observed AQI: 28 (Good)Saturday, 12:00 AM — Observed AQI: 26 (Good)Saturday, 1:00 AM — Observed AQI: 27 (Good)Saturday, 2:00 AM — Observed AQI: 27 (Good)Saturday, 3:00 AM — Observed AQI: 28 (Good)Saturday, 4:00 AM — Observed AQI: 29 (Good)Saturday, 5:00 AM — Observed AQI: 30 (Good)Saturday, 6:00 AM — Observed AQI: 30 (Good)Saturday, 7:00 AM — Observed AQI: 30 (Good)Saturday, 8:00 AM — Observed AQI: 29 (Good)Saturday, 9:00 AM — Observed AQI: 28 (Good)Saturday, 10:00 AM — Observed AQI: 27 (Good)Saturday, 11:00 AM — Observed AQI: 24 (Good)Saturday, 1:00 PM — Forecast: 24; likely range 15–30 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 10–35 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 24–24 (Good)Saturday, 2:00 PM — Forecast: 24; likely range 15–35 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 5–40 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 21–26 (Good)Saturday, 3:00 PM — Forecast: 23; likely range 10–35 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–45 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 18–28 (Good)Saturday, 4:00 PM — Forecast: 23; likely range 10–35 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–50 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 15–30 (Good)Saturday, 5:00 PM — Forecast: 23; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 13–32 (Good)Saturday, 6:00 PM — Forecast: 23; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 10–35 (Good)Saturday, 7:00 PM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–50 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 7–37 (Good)Saturday, 8:00 PM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–50 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 7–37 (Good)Saturday, 9:00 PM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 7–37 (Good)Saturday, 10:00 PM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 7–37 (Good)Saturday, 11:00 PM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 6–37 (Good)Sunday, 12:00 AM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 6–37 (Good)Sunday, 1:00 AM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 6–37 (Good)Sunday, 2:00 AM — Forecast: 22; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 6–38 (Good)Sunday, 3:00 AM — Forecast: 23; likely range 5–40 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 7–39 (Good)Sunday, 4:00 AM — Forecast: 25; likely range 5–45 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–55 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 9–41 (Good)Sunday, 5:00 AM — Forecast: 26; likely range 5–45 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–60 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 10–43 (Good)Sunday, 6:00 AM — Forecast: 28; likely range 10–45 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–60 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 12–44 (Good)Sunday, 7:00 AM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 14–46 (Good)Sunday, 8:00 AM — Forecast: 33; likely range 15–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 16–49 (Good)Sunday, 9:00 AM — Forecast: 32; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 15–48 (Good)Sunday, 10:00 AM — Forecast: 33; likely range 15–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 16–49 (Good)Sunday, 11:00 AM — Forecast: 35; likely range 15–55 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–70 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 18–52 (Good)Sunday, 12:00 PM — Forecast: 34; likely range 15–55 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–70 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 17–51 (Good)Sunday, 1:00 PM — Forecast: 33; likely range 15–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 16–50 (Good)Sunday, 2:00 PM — Forecast: 31; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 14–48 (Good)Sunday, 3:00 PM — Forecast: 31; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 14–48 (Good)Sunday, 4:00 PM — Forecast: 33; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 15–50 (Good)Sunday, 5:00 PM — Forecast: 33; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–70 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 15–50 (Good)Sunday, 6:00 PM — Forecast: 32; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 14–49 (Good)Sunday, 7:00 PM — Forecast: 32; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 14–49 (Good)Sunday, 8:00 PM — Forecast: 31; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 13–49 (Good)Sunday, 9:00 PM — Forecast: 31; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 13–49 (Good)Sunday, 10:00 PM — Forecast: 31; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 13–49 (Good)Sunday, 11:00 PM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 12–48 (Good)Monday, 12:00 AM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 12–48 (Good)Monday, 1:00 AM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 12–48 (Good)Monday, 2:00 AM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 12–48 (Good)Monday, 3:00 AM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 11–48 (Good)Monday, 4:00 AM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–65 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 11–49 (Good)Monday, 5:00 AM — Forecast: 30; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–70 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 11–49 (Good)Monday, 6:00 AM — Forecast: 31; likely range 10–50 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–70 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 12–50 (Good)Monday, 7:00 AM — Forecast: 33; likely range 10–55 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–70 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 14–52 (Good)Monday, 8:00 AM — Forecast: 35; likely range 15–55 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–75 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 16–54 (Good)Monday, 9:00 AM — Forecast: 41; likely range 20–60 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–80 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 22–60 (Good)Monday, 10:00 AM — Forecast: 41; likely range 20–60 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–80 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 22–60 (Good)Monday, 11:00 AM — Forecast: 38; likely range 15–60 (model-estimated central 50%); wider range 0–75 (model-estimated central 80%); timing range 19–58 (Good)ISSUED1:00 PMFri12 AMFri12 PMSat12 AMSat12 PMSun12 AMSun12 PMMon12 AMMon12 PM
ObservedForecastLikely rangeWider rangeTiming range

Visibility & smoke aloft near Spokane

Ground<0.1 μg/m³1,600 ft0.1 μg/m³3,300 ft0.1 μg/m³6,600 ft<0.1 μg/m³9,800 ft<0.1 μg/m³
Width and shading increase with modeled smoke; exact values are listed. The shape connects only neighboring levels with data. The pale dashed profile shows where the regional model places airborne haze. It may include particles other than wildfire smoke.
9,800 ft
<0.1 µg/m³ smoke
6,600 ft
<0.1 µg/m³ smoke
3,300 ft
0.1 µg/m³ smoke
1,600 ft
0.1 µg/m³ smoke
Ground (~30 ft)
<0.1 µg/m³ smoke
Ground visibility
29 mi visibility
Haze light loss
2%/mi · ground

HRRR model guidance. Visibility includes fog and weather. Smoke values aloft are model estimates, not AQI or sensor readings. CAMS adds a broad regional haze view, not local AQI.

Upcoming periods

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3

Midday

21

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 0–40

Wider uncertainty reaches Moderate

NE→SW · 5 mph · Light

Limited vertical mixing

Surface Low Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

Late Day

20

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 0–35

NE→SW · 4 mph · Light

Some vertical mixing

Surface Low Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

Evening / Overnight

Varies by area · typical AQI

  • Libby15–20
  • NE Washington20–30
  • Spokane–CdA21 ↗ 32
  • Silver Valley15–45variable
  • Bonners Ferry25–55variable
  • Sandpoint25–65variable

Most likely range (50% chance): 0–35

NE→SW · 4 mph · Light

Limited vertical mixing

Surface Low Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4

Morning

27

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 10–45

Wider uncertainty reaches Moderate

E→W · 3 mph · Light

Limited vertical mixing

Surface Low Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

Midday

30

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 10–50

Wider uncertainty reaches Moderate

Variable · 2 mph

Limited vertical mixing

Surface Moderate Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

Late Day

29

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 10–50

Wider uncertainty reaches Moderate

SW→NE · 4 mph · Light

Some vertical mixing

Surface Moderate Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

Evening / Overnight

28

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 5–50

Wider uncertainty reaches Moderate

SW→NE · 4 mph · Light

Limited vertical mixing

Surface Moderate Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

MONDAY, OCTOBER 5

Morning

26

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 5–45

Wider uncertainty reaches Moderate

S→N · 4 mph · Light

Limited vertical mixing

Surface Low Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

Midday

27

Good

Most likely range (50% chance): 5–50

Wider uncertainty reaches Moderate

SW→NE · 4 mph · Light

Limited vertical mixing

Surface Low Chance of smoke near the ground during this period. Aloft Low Chance of smoke overhead. This alone does not mean poor air quality at ground level.

Smoke movement

A main wind direction is unavailable for this forecast. The most plausible smoke sources are Washington fire activity, Western Montana fire activity, Northeastern Washington fire activity.

REGIONAL SOURCES AND TRANSPORT

Possible smoke sources

Sources are ranked by plausibility, not by how much smoke each produced.

RankSource PotentialWhy
1 High Grouped regional activity High potential from 1 unidentified fire cluster in this region.
2 High Grouped regional activity High potential from 1 unidentified fire cluster in this region.
3 Medium Grouped regional activity Medium potential from 1 unidentified fire cluster in this region.
4 Medium Grouped regional activity Medium potential from 1 unidentified fire cluster in this region.
5 Medium Grouped regional activity Medium potential from 1 unidentified fire cluster in this region.

Forecast confidence

Medium

Some uncertainty remains

Most needed data is available, but smoke arrival and AQI can still change.

  • Biggest uncertainty: No major forecast input has low confidence, so overall confidence is medium.

About this forecast

This forecast combines fire detections, official fire reports, weather and smoke-movement models, satellite images, and ground sensors to estimate smoke conditions.

How it works and its limits
  • The internal evidence score is 77/100. It summarizes how much supporting information is available; it is not a probability or accuracy score.
  • Source rankings show plausibility, not each fire's share of the smoke.
  • Satellite heat detections do not show exact fire boundaries.
  • Wind-path lines show where air may travel, not the actual smoke plume.
  • HRRR-Smoke is a model estimate, not a PM2.5 sensor reading or AQI.
  • HRRR-Smoke values are not directly converted into AQI.
  • The local AQI map is calibrated from model data; it is not an observation.
  • NOAA's shaded smoke areas show smoke seen from satellites, not ground-level PM2.5 or AQI.